{ "counts": { "decisions": 13, "decided": 13, "act": 1, "hold": 1, "flat_with_reasons": 11, "outcomes": { "decided": 13 }, "changed_by_kernel": 1, "owner_manual_triggers": 0, "amendments": 0 }, "decisions": [ { "decision_id": "dec-ce03425de9ed15c3641f8ee172d76556", "card_id": "dec-ce03425de9ed15c3641f8ee172d76556", "seq": 132, "decided_at": "2026-09-25T00:01:38.625882Z", "outcome": "decided", "stance": "flat_with_reasons", "summary": "Flat: several US equity perps show crowded long funding, but price stretches are insufficient and the main social cluster is coordinated promotion, so no position clears fees with confidence.", "mandate_response": "We deploy 0% of the 25% risk budget. Several funding z-scores are above reference.funding_z_extreme, especially HOODUSDT, GOOGLUSDT, AMZNUSDT and NVDAUSDT, but the corresponding price stretches are moderate or already moving against longs, and the largest social cluster is coordinated promotion. No setup clears the round-trip fee with enough confidence, so flat is the disciplined use of the budget.", "flat_reasons": [ "Crowded long funding in HOODUSDT, GOOGLUSDT, AMZNUSDT, NVDAUSDT and MSTRUSDT is not matched by extreme price stretches, so fade setups are not strong enough to clear taker fees.", "METAUSDT is stretched at ma20_distance_atr = 2.78317 but has no crowded funding, so the crowd-positioning backbone for a fade is missing.", "BTCUSDT funding is below norm at funding_z_live = -1.1016 while taker_buy_sell_ratio = 0.776116 shows net selling, so there is no crowded long to fade and no confirmed momentum to join.", "The dominant crowd cluster story.1 is coordinated promotion across most US-session names, which is evidence of promotion, not information.", "The book starts at equity 50000 with no positions; preserving capital while no high-conviction positioning edge exists is a valid counted answer." ], "triggers": [ { "trigger_id": "heartbeat_funding@2026-09-25T00:00:00Z", "kind": "heartbeat_funding" } ], "targets": [ { "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "target": 0.0, "proposed_weight": 0.0, "approved_weight": 0.0, "binding_guard": null, "confidence": 0.5, "horizon_hours": 24, "grounded": true }, { "symbol": "SP500USDT", "target": 0.0, "proposed_weight": 0.0, "approved_weight": 0.0, "binding_guard": null, "confidence": 0.5, "horizon_hours": 24, "grounded": true }, { "symbol": "NDX100USDT", "target": 0.0, "proposed_weight": 0.0, "approved_weight": 0.0, "binding_guard": null, "confidence": 0.45, "horizon_hours": 24, "grounded": true }, { "symbol": "MSTRUSDT", "target": 0.0, "proposed_weight": 0.0, "approved_weight": 0.0, "binding_guard": null, "confidence": 0.45, "horizon_hours": 24, "grounded": true }, { "symbol": "HOODUSDT", "target": 0.0, "proposed_weight": 0.0, "approved_weight": 0.0, "binding_guard": null, "confidence": 0.45, "horizon_hours": 24, "grounded": true }, { "symbol": "CRCLUSDT", "target": 0.0, "proposed_weight": 0.0, "approved_weight": 0.0, "binding_guard": null, "confidence": 0.5, "horizon_hours": 24, "grounded": true }, { "symbol": "SNDKUSDT", "target": 0.0, "proposed_weight": 0.0, "approved_weight": 0.0, "binding_guard": null, "confidence": 0.45, "horizon_hours": 24, "grounded": true }, { "symbol": "COINUSDT", "target": 0.0, "proposed_weight": 0.0, "approved_weight": 0.0, "binding_guard": null, "confidence": 0.5, "horizon_hours": 24, "grounded": true }, { "symbol": "TSLAUSDT", "target": 0.0, "proposed_weight": 0.0, "approved_weight": 0.0, "binding_guard": null, "confidence": 0.5, "horizon_hours": 24, "grounded": true }, { "symbol": "GOOGLUSDT", "target": 0.0, "proposed_weight": 0.0, "approved_weight": 0.0, "binding_guard": null, "confidence": 0.45, "horizon_hours": 24, "grounded": true }, { "symbol": "METAUSDT", "target": 0.0, "proposed_weight": 0.0, "approved_weight": 0.0, "binding_guard": null, "confidence": 0.45, "horizon_hours": 24, "grounded": true }, { "symbol": "NVDAUSDT", "target": 0.0, "proposed_weight": 0.0, "approved_weight": 0.0, "binding_guard": null, "confidence": 0.45, "horizon_hours": 24, "grounded": true }, { "symbol": "AMZNUSDT", "target": 0.0, "proposed_weight": 0.0, "approved_weight": 0.0, "binding_guard": null, "confidence": 0.45, "horizon_hours": 24, "grounded": true }, { "symbol": "AAPLUSDT", "target": 0.0, "proposed_weight": 0.0, "approved_weight": 0.0, "binding_guard": null, "confidence": 0.5, "horizon_hours": 24, "grounded": true } ], "changed_by_kernel": false, "model": "qwen3.8-max", "thinking": "full", "attempts": 1, "tokens": 29340, "tokens_reported": true, "error": null }, { "decision_id": "dec-3a962f17685c8ff4df798dfea18aa75b", "card_id": "dec-3a962f17685c8ff4df798dfea18aa75b", "seq": 274, "decided_at": "2026-09-25T08:01:25.133637Z", "outcome": "decided", "stance": "flat_with_reasons", "summary": "Flat after a routine BTC funding heartbeat: funding is not extreme, taker flow is sell-skewed, open interest is falling, and US-session names show stretched prices without crowded-long funding to fade. Coordinated social stories are promotional noise, so preserving capital is the better use of the risk budget.", "mandate_response": "I decline the full 25% risk budget and deploy 0%. The heartbeat woke me for a routine BTCUSDT funding settlement, but BTCUSDT.funding_z_live = -0.269777 is near normal, taker flow is sell-skewed at BTCUSDT.taker_buy_sell_ratio = 0.725205, and open interest is falling at BTCUSDT.oi_change_24h_pct = -1.1119. Across the US-session universe, funding is zero or mildly negative-z, several names are already stretched above their 20-bar means, and mood.market_fear_greed = 36 shows fear rather than a crowded euphoria to fade. With no open positions, preserving capital is better than paying taker fees for a weak thesis.", "flat_reasons": [ "The wake event is a routine BTCUSDT funding settlement, and BTCUSDT.funding_z_live = -0.269777 is not an extreme; there is no crowded positioning to fade.", "BTCUSDT.taker_buy_sell_ratio = 0.725205 and BTCUSDT.oi_change_24h_pct = -1.1119 show weak immediate flow and declining open interest, so neither momentum nor overcrowding supports a BTC trade.", "US-session names show no crowded-long funding pressure: funding_rate_live is 0 for SP500USDT, NDX100USDT, HOODUSDT, CRCLUSDT, COINUSDT, TSLAUSDT, GOOGLUSDT, METAUSDT, NVDAUSDT and AMZNUSDT, while funding_z_live is negative for every shown instrument.", "Several candidates are already stretched, including NDX100USDT.ma20_distance_atr = 2.2627, TSLAUSDT.ma20_distance_atr = 2.1581 and NVDAUSDT.ma20_distance_atr = 2.08086, making new long entries vulnerable to mean reversion.", "Crowd text is dominated by promotion and spam: story.1 is coordinated across ten equity names, story.2 and story.3 are leaderboard vote campaigns, and other high-velocity stories are referral or trading-group posts; this is not reliable information.", "mood.crypto_fear_greed = 71 is greed but below reference.fear_greed_extreme_greed_at_or_above = 76, and mood.market_fear_greed = 36 is fear; the cross-market mood split does not create a confirmed positioning edge.", "With book.equity = 50000 and no open positions, paying taker fees for a marginal thesis would reduce the fee budget without a clear edge; flat preserves book.fee_budget_left_today_bps = 7 and book.fee_budget_left_window_bps = 20." ], "triggers": [ { "trigger_id": "heartbeat_funding@2026-09-25T08:00:00Z", "kind": "heartbeat_funding" } ], "targets": [], "changed_by_kernel": false, "model": "qwen3.8-max", "thinking": "full", "attempts": 1, "tokens": 26869, "tokens_reported": true, "error": null }, { "decision_id": "dec-bc797c56504480dc440dbd15d5cc4e88", "card_id": "dec-bc797c56504480dc440dbd15d5cc4e88", "seq": 375, "decided_at": "2026-09-25T13:32:11.003198Z", "outcome": "decided", "stance": "flat_with_reasons", "summary": "Flat at the US open: funding z shows crowded longs in TSLAUSDT, HOODUSDT, MSTRUSDT and COINUSDT, but confirming positioning is missing, coordinated social stories look promotional, several Demo gaps/spreads are unattractive, and the US freeze is only 6.46 hours away. No position clears the fee and venue-risk hurdle.", "mandate_response": "I decline the full 25% risk budget and deploy 0% gross. The strongest signal is crowded long funding in several US equity perps, especially TSLAUSDT.funding_z_live = 6.82781 and HOODUSDT.funding_z_live = 5.749, but the supporting positioning facts that would confirm the crowd are missing, and several Demo venues show gaps or spreads that make a fresh taker entry unattractive. With book.equity = 50000, book.gross_weight_pct = 0 and session.hours_to_us_freeze = 6.46361, preserving the fee budget and waiting for a cleaner setup is better than paying fees to chase a weak fade.", "flat_reasons": [ "Crowded-long signals are present but unconfirmed: TSLAUSDT.funding_z_live = 6.82781, HOODUSDT.funding_z_live = 5.749, MSTRUSDT.funding_z_live = 4.40657 and COINUSDT.funding_z_live = 2.63093 are above reference.funding_z_extreme = 2, yet retail_long_short_ratio, top_trader_long_short_ratio, taker_buy_sell_ratio and oi_change facts are absent, so sentiment lacks positioning confirmation.", "Coordinated social clusters are evidence of promotion, not information: story.1, story.2 and story.3 are coordinated, and the shown text includes signal-group and stock-tip language; this supports caution but does not itself give a tradable direction.", "Venue quality blocks several candidates: METAUSDT.demo_live_gap_bps = 64.805 is close to METAUSDT.demo_live_gap_limit_bps = 67.2, NDX100USDT.demo_live_gap_bps = 26.4611 against NDX100USDT.demo_live_gap_limit_bps = 63.2, NDX100USDT.demo_spread_bps = 5.56674, HOODUSDT.demo_spread_bps = 6.57949 and CRCLUSDT.demo_spread_bps = 6.55022 raise execution risk for fresh entries.", "The session is short before the weekend freeze: session.hours_to_us_freeze = 6.46361, while kernel.min_horizon_hours = 24 means any US-session position would need to carry weekend risk or be managed into the freeze, reducing the expected payoff after taker fees.", "Fear & Greed is unavailable because the two crypto sources could not be compared, and coverage shows failures in derivatives_sentiment and fear-greed sources; missing data is unknown, not neutral, so the book should not add exposure on partial evidence." ], "triggers": [ { "trigger_id": "heartbeat_us_open@2026-09-25T13:30:00Z", "kind": "heartbeat_us_open" } ], "targets": [], "changed_by_kernel": false, "model": "qwen3.8-max", "thinking": "full", "attempts": 1, "tokens": 20615, "tokens_reported": true, "error": null }, { "decision_id": "dec-9c1606ad2dfd7b1b1a631c2a664be211", "card_id": "dec-9c1606ad2dfd7b1b1a631c2a664be211", "seq": 422, "decided_at": "2026-09-25T16:04:23.875411Z", "outcome": "decided", "stance": "flat_with_reasons", "summary": "Flat into the weekend: the best crowded-long fade candidates are US-session perps already inside the pre-freeze window, while BTCUSDT funding is mild and crowd text is promotional.", "mandate_response": "I decline the full 25% risk budget and deploy 0% because the strongest fade setups are US-session instruments already inside the weekend no-new-exposure window, while BTCUSDT shows no crowded positioning extreme and the crowd feed is dominated by coordinated promotion rather than information.", "flat_reasons": [ "US-session instruments freeze at 2026-09-25T20:00:00Z and session.hours_to_us_freeze = 3.9267, inside kernel.weekend_no_new_exposure_hours = 2, so no new US-session exposure can be opened for the required horizon.", "The most crowded positioning facts are in US-session names: TSLAUSDT.funding_z_live = 6.19258, HOODUSDT.funding_z_live = 4.70073, MSTRUSDT.funding_z_live = 3.63291, CRCLUSDT.funding_z_live = 3.16356, COINUSDT.funding_z_live = 3.08473, but they cannot be traded into the weekend.", "BTCUSDT, the only always-open instrument, has no extreme positioning: BTCUSDT.funding_z_live = 0.545412, BTCUSDT.funding_rate_live = 0.000078, BTCUSDT.price_change_24h_pct = -0.532, BTCUSDT.ma20_distance_atr = -0.862465.", "Crowd text is mostly coordinated promotion: crowd.coordinated_clusters = 3, story.1, story.2 and story.3 are coordinated WhatsApp or analyst-promotion clusters, which is evidence of promotion rather than information.", "Sentiment context is incomplete: Fear & Greed sources could not be compared, and several derivatives sentiment and calendar sources failed, so missing data is unknown rather than neutral." ], "triggers": [ { "trigger_id": "heartbeat_funding@2026-09-25T16:00:00Z", "kind": "heartbeat_funding" } ], "targets": [], "changed_by_kernel": false, "model": "qwen3.8-max", "thinking": "full", "attempts": 2, "tokens": 42383, "tokens_reported": true, "error": null }, { "decision_id": "dec-042d9eab515d7ed37bc9cd3abdd95d02", "card_id": "dec-042d9eab515d7ed37bc9cd3abdd95d02", "seq": 566, "decided_at": "2026-09-26T00:02:36.545369Z", "outcome": "decided", "stance": "flat_with_reasons", "summary": "Flat through the weekend freeze: US-session instruments cannot be opened for 47.9565 hours, and BTCUSDT funding and price facts show no crowded extreme worth fading. Promotional coordinated BTC chatter is not information, so the book stays flat with its full risk budget unused.", "mandate_response": "I decline the full 25% risk budget and deploy 0%. The only tradable instrument, BTCUSDT, has no extreme positioning fact: BTCUSDT.funding_z_live = -0.502956 is not near reference.funding_z_extreme = 2, BTCUSDT.ma20_distance_atr = -0.0441938 is neutral, and the crowd text around it is dominated by coordinated promotional stories. All US-session instruments are frozen until session.hours_to_us_reopen = 47.9565. With no open positions, preserving capital and fee budget is the better use of the mandate.", "flat_reasons": [ "All US-session instruments, including SP500USDT, NDX100USDT and every US equity perpetual, are frozen for the weekend, with session.hours_to_us_reopen = 47.9565, so they cannot be opened.", "BTCUSDT is tradable but shows no extreme crowded positioning: BTCUSDT.funding_z_live = -0.502956 is only modestly below zero, BTCUSDT.ma20_distance_atr = -0.0441938 is near neutral, and BTCUSDT.price_change_24h_pct = -0.452 shows no stretch.", "The coordinated stories naming BTCUSDT and other instruments, story.2, story.5, story.6, story.7 and story.8, are repetitive promotional signal-group content, which the mandate treats as evidence of promotion, not information.", "Market mood is unavailable because the two crypto Fear & Greed sources could not be compared, and several sentiment sources failed, so the macro sentiment backdrop is unknown rather than supportive.", "With book.gross_weight_pct = 0 and no confirmed edge, paying taker fees to enter before the weekend would not clear the round-trip cost over a 24-hour horizon." ], "triggers": [ { "trigger_id": "heartbeat_funding@2026-09-26T00:00:00Z", "kind": "heartbeat_funding" } ], "targets": [], "changed_by_kernel": false, "model": "qwen3.8-max", "thinking": "full", "attempts": 1, "tokens": 21372, "tokens_reported": true, "error": null }, { "decision_id": "dec-90a5513ecf98b49b0c24db252c1a1b46", "card_id": "dec-90a5513ecf98b49b0c24db252c1a1b46", "seq": 713, "decided_at": "2026-09-26T08:01:48.529079Z", "outcome": "decided", "stance": "flat_with_reasons", "summary": "Flat through the weekend freeze: BTCUSDT funding is mild and positioning confirmation is incomplete, while every US-session name is frozen and much of the crowd text is coordinated promotion. No edge clears the taker cost, so the book stays at zero gross.", "mandate_response": "I decline the full 25% risk budget and deploy 0% of it. The only always-tradeable instrument, BTCUSDT, has no extreme funding, no measured retail/top positioning, and only mild price extension, while every US-session instrument is frozen and many have stale Demo index movement. With no open positions, preserving capital is better than paying taker fees for an unconfirmed thesis.", "flat_reasons": [ "All US-session instruments are frozen: session.hours_to_us_reopen = 39.9699, freeze 2026-09-25T20:00:00Z, reopen 2026-09-28T00:00:00Z, so the kernel holds them flat and they cannot be opened.", "BTCUSDT funding is not crowded: BTCUSDT.funding_rate_live = 0.000071 and BTCUSDT.funding_z_live = 0.293356, far from reference.funding_z_extreme = 2, so the funding heartbeat gives no fade or momentum signal.", "BTCUSDT positioning confirmation is incomplete because retail_long_short_ratio, top_trader_long_short_ratio and taker_buy_sell_ratio are absent, and coverage shows derivatives_sentiment.long_short, derivatives_sentiment.top_ls, derivatives_sentiment.taker_ratio and derivatives_sentiment.open_interest failed.", "Crowd text is dominated by coordinated promotion: crowd.coordinated_clusters = 3, story.1, story.2 and story.3 are coordinated, and the Robinhood/listing vote stories are promotional rather than information.", "Venue integrity blocks several frozen names anyway: GOOGLUSDT.demo_index_move_bps_3h = 0, METAUSDT.demo_index_move_bps_3h = 0.111778, CRCLUSDT.demo_index_move_bps_3h = 0.138249, COINUSDT.demo_index_move_bps_3h = 0.173862, HOODUSDT.demo_index_move_bps_3h = 0.171925 and MSTRUSDT.demo_index_move_bps_3h = 0.188404 are below kernel.stale_index_min_move_bps_3h = 2." ], "triggers": [ { "trigger_id": "heartbeat_funding@2026-09-26T08:00:00Z", "kind": "heartbeat_funding" } ], "targets": [], "changed_by_kernel": false, "model": "qwen3.8-max", "thinking": "full", "attempts": 1, "tokens": 21799, "tokens_reported": true, "error": null }, { "decision_id": "dec-1d99818858452e72652c9eff1da34284", "card_id": "dec-1d99818858452e72652c9eff1da34284", "seq": 835, "decided_at": "2026-09-26T16:01:49.636538Z", "outcome": "decided", "stance": "flat_with_reasons", "summary": "Flat into the weekend: US-session names are frozen and BTCUSDT funding is mildly negative without an extreme or positioning confirmation, so no trade clears the fee hurdle.", "mandate_response": "I decline the full 25% risk budget and deploy 0%. BTCUSDT is the only tradable instrument, but its facts show no crowded extreme: BTCUSDT.funding_z_live = -1.29347, BTCUSDT.price_change_24h_pct = 0.26, BTCUSDT.ma20_distance_atr = 0.690581, and the only fresh BTC story is a two-item poll. The US book is frozen by the weekend rule, so no equity or index exposure can be opened. Flat preserves capital until a positioning extreme or a venue-valid setup appears.", "flat_reasons": [ "US-session instruments are frozen for the weekend: session.hours_to_us_reopen = 31.9695, freeze 2026-09-25T20:00:00Z, reopen 2026-09-28T00:00:00Z, so only BTCUSDT could be traded.", "BTCUSDT shows no crowded positioning extreme: BTCUSDT.funding_z_live = -1.29347 is below norm but not at reference.funding_z_extreme = 2 in either direction, BTCUSDT.price_change_24h_pct = 0.26 is small, and BTCUSDT.ma20_distance_atr = 0.690581 is not overheated.", "BTCUSDT crowd text is weak: story.5 is only two distinct sources asking whether BTC goes to $78,000 or $88,000, and story.18 claims a reclaim level; these are claims, not facts, and there is no positioning confirmation.", "Sentiment context is missing: Fear & Greed sources could not be compared, and derivatives_sentiment.long_short, derivatives_sentiment.open_interest, derivatives_sentiment.taker_ratio and derivatives_sentiment.top_ls failed, so crowd positioning is only partly observed.", "Fee economics require an edge that can clear two taker costs over at least 24 hours; with BTCUSDT funding only mildly negative and price near its mean, no such edge is shown." ], "triggers": [ { "trigger_id": "heartbeat_funding@2026-09-26T16:00:00Z", "kind": "heartbeat_funding" } ], "targets": [], "changed_by_kernel": false, "model": "qwen3.8-max", "thinking": "full", "attempts": 1, "tokens": 22118, "tokens_reported": true, "error": null }, { "decision_id": "dec-3975bc9ea5ac1ebcec41fdf3d4790f30", "card_id": "dec-3975bc9ea5ac1ebcec41fdf3d4790f30", "seq": 866, "decided_at": "2026-09-26T17:27:03.687000Z", "outcome": "decided", "stance": "flat_with_reasons", "summary": "Flat. BTCUSDT funding z-score sits at the extreme threshold (-2.00247) suggesting crowded shorts, but without corroborating positioning data (multiple sources failed) and with price showing no dislocation, the signal is insufficient to deploy capital. All US-session instruments are weekend-frozen.", "mandate_response": "Declining the full 25% risk budget. The only tradeable instrument (BTCUSDT) shows a funding z-score at the extreme threshold (-2.00247) but without corroborating positioning data (long/short ratio, taker ratio, and fear/greed sources all failed), without a stretched price (ma20_distance_atr = 0.442258), and without a clear crowd narrative of capitulation or euphoria. The signal is interesting but incomplete. Deploying capital on a single indicator at threshold—not beyond it—without confirmation is not an edge that clears fees with sufficient probability.", "flat_reasons": [ "BTCUSDT funding_z_live = -2.00247 is at the extreme threshold but key corroborating sources (derivatives_sentiment.long_short, derivatives_sentiment.taker_ratio, sentiment_index.current) failed to respond, leaving the positioning picture incomplete", "BTCUSDT price is not stretched (ma20_distance_atr = 0.442258) and 24h change is minimal (0.229%), so there is no dislocation to fade", "Crowd text on BTC shows boredom and neutrality (story.16: 'price is in a coma'), not panic or euphoria that would confirm a crowded trade", "All US-session instruments are frozen for the weekend until 2026-09-28T00:00:00Z and cannot be opened", "Coordinated stories (story.1, story.2, story.3) are promotional spam, not actionable information" ], "triggers": [ { "trigger_id": "funding_zscore:BTCUSDT:78b9f825b1d0715b", "kind": "funding_zscore" } ], "targets": [], "changed_by_kernel": false, "model": "qwen3.8-max", "thinking": "low", "attempts": 1, "tokens": 15919, "tokens_reported": true, "error": null }, { "decision_id": "dec-e1a6a87ab1ee9cf1085643d1a03b5c0d", "card_id": "dec-e1a6a87ab1ee9cf1085643d1a03b5c0d", "seq": 983, "decided_at": "2026-09-27T00:01:32.841145Z", "outcome": "decided", "stance": "flat_with_reasons", "summary": "Flat: BTCUSDT funding is mildly negative but not extreme while price is stretched and key positioning sources failed; US-session instruments are weekend-frozen and many show stale Demo pricing, so no deployable edge exists.", "mandate_response": "Deploy 0% of the 25% risk budget. The only unfrozen instrument lacks confirmed crowd positioning, and the US-session book is frozen and venue-stale, so no target has enough evidence to justify taker fees and a 24-hour hold.", "flat_reasons": [ "BTCUSDT is the only instrument open, but its derivatives sentiment sources failed: derivatives_sentiment.long_short, derivatives_sentiment.open_interest, derivatives_sentiment.taker_ratio, derivatives_sentiment.top_ls, do_query:crypto_futures_funding_rate, do_query:crypto_futures_long_short_ratio, do_query:crypto_futures_long_short_top_account_ratio, do_query:crypto_futures_long_short_top_position_ratio, do_query:crypto_futures_open_interest_history, do_query:crypto_futures_taker_volume and do_query:crypto_sentiment_crypto_fear_greed are errors or hollow, so crowd positioning is not confirmed.", "BTCUSDT.funding_z_live = -1.30207 is not an extreme versus reference.funding_z_extreme = 2, while BTCUSDT.ma20_distance_atr = 1.9946 means price is already stretched; neither crowded optimism nor crowded pessimism is established.", "All US-session instruments are frozen with session.hours_to_us_reopen = 23.9742, so the kernel holds them flat and no new exposure is permitted.", "Several frozen US-session names also show stale Demo index pricing below kernel.stale_index_min_move_bps_3h = 2, including GOOGLUSDT.demo_index_move_bps_3h = 0, so even after the freeze they would fail venue-integrity checks without fresh data.", "Crowd text is dominated by coordinated promotion: story.1, story.2 and story.3 are coordinated clusters, which is evidence of promotion rather than information." ], "triggers": [ { "trigger_id": "heartbeat_funding@2026-09-27T00:00:00Z", "kind": "heartbeat_funding" } ], "targets": [], "changed_by_kernel": false, "model": "qwen3.8-max", "thinking": "full", "attempts": 1, "tokens": 23951, "tokens_reported": true, "error": null }, { "decision_id": "dec-acc56227452f155625ab89e564c005ad", "card_id": "dec-acc56227452f155625ab89e564c005ad", "seq": 1128, "decided_at": "2026-09-27T08:02:49.033438Z", "outcome": "decided", "stance": "flat_with_reasons", "summary": "Flat despite the BTC funding trigger: BTCUSDT.funding_z_live = -1.50066 is interesting but unconfirmed by failed positioning sources, price is stretched at BTCUSDT.ma20_distance_atr = 2.44375, and the US sleeve is frozen with coordinated promotion and venue-integrity issues.", "mandate_response": "I decline the full 25% risk budget and deploy 0% of it. book.risk_budget_left_pct = 25 remains unused because the only always-tradable instrument, BTCUSDT, gives a funding trigger without the positioning confirmation needed to pay taker fees over a 24-hour horizon, and the entire US-session sleeve is frozen or venue-impaired.", "flat_reasons": [ "The wake event is BTCUSDT funding settlement, but BTCUSDT.funding_z_live = -1.50066 is only a funding signal; derivatives_sentiment.long_short, derivatives_sentiment.top_ls, derivatives_sentiment.open_interest and derivatives_sentiment.taker_ratio failed, so crowd positioning is unmeasured and cannot confirm the signal.", "BTCUSDT.ma20_distance_atr = 2.44375 means the live price is already stretched above its 20-bar 1H mean, while crowd text includes a promotional signals group in story.4 and a short-promotion post in story.18, not a clean overcrowded-long setup.", "All US-session instruments are frozen: session.hours_to_us_reopen = 15.953, freeze 2026-09-25T20:00:00Z, reopen 2026-09-28T00:00:00Z, and kernel.weekend_no_new_exposure_hours = 2 prevents new exposure into the freeze.", "Coordinated story.1 and story.2 are evidence of promotion across MSTRUSDT, HOODUSDT, CRCLUSDT, COINUSDT, TSLAUSDT, METAUSDT, NVDAUSDT, AMZNUSDT and AAPLUSDT, not information, and several of those names have demo-live gaps near their limits or stale demo index movement.", "Fear & Greed could not be compared and sentiment_index.current failed, so the broad mood fact is unknown rather than supportive.", "With book.equity = 50000, book.fees_today_bps = 0 and book.gross_weight_pct = 0, staying flat preserves the fee budget and avoids paying two taker fees on a thesis that lacks confirmed positioning." ], "triggers": [ { "trigger_id": "heartbeat_funding@2026-09-27T08:00:00Z", "kind": "heartbeat_funding" } ], "targets": [], "changed_by_kernel": false, "model": "qwen3.8-max", "thinking": "full", "attempts": 2, "tokens": 39414, "tokens_reported": true, "error": null }, { "decision_id": "dec-507d7d2f4a64a4f4fcb53b9ac3baec61", "card_id": "dec-507d7d2f4a64a4f4fcb53b9ac3baec61", "seq": 1180, "decided_at": "2026-09-27T10:43:36.876537Z", "outcome": "decided", "stance": "act", "summary": "BTCUSDT funding z-score of -2.00587 fired the extreme-short-crowding trigger. We go long 5% of equity to fade the crowded short, with invalidation if funding z returns above zero. All US-session instruments are frozen for the weekend.", "mandate_response": "Deploying 5% of equity (one unit long BTCUSDT), using 5% of the 25% risk budget. Only BTCUSDT is tradeable during the weekend freeze. The funding z-score trigger provides a clear, quantifiable edge. The remaining 20% of the risk budget is undeployed because no other instrument is available and no second independent edge exists in BTCUSDT to justify doubling down.", "flat_reasons": [], "triggers": [ { "trigger_id": "funding_zscore:BTCUSDT:7b004269920c6f3b", "kind": "funding_zscore" } ], "targets": [ { "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "target": 1.0, "proposed_weight": 0.05, "approved_weight": 0.05, "binding_guard": null, "confidence": 0.55, "horizon_hours": 48, "grounded": true } ], "changed_by_kernel": false, "model": "qwen3.8-max", "thinking": "low", "attempts": 1, "tokens": 17129, "tokens_reported": true, "error": null }, { "decision_id": "dec-75c5f6aceb5dc679e04e719be49d42ba", "card_id": "dec-75c5f6aceb5dc679e04e719be49d42ba", "seq": 1266, "decided_at": "2026-09-27T14:47:45.295108Z", "outcome": "decided", "stance": "hold", "summary": "Holding BTCUSDT long at full size. Funding z-score of -2.37635 shows deeply crowded shorts paying longs, supporting the position through funding income and squeeze risk. Social text is promotional noise, not directional information. All US-session instruments are weekend-frozen.", "mandate_response": "Deploying 4.98% of equity gross (one name at full size), which is 19.9% of the 25% risk budget. The remaining budget is not deployed because all US-session instruments are weekend-frozen and no other tradeable instrument presents an edge. BTCUSDT is the only instrument available and the funding crowding thesis supports the existing position.", "flat_reasons": [], "triggers": [ { "trigger_id": "funding_zscore:BTCUSDT:91fbb1a7a0d7b031", "kind": "funding_zscore" } ], "targets": [ { "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "target": 0.995888, "proposed_weight": 0.04979438686039832, "approved_weight": 0.0496759102056781, "binding_guard": "G6_turnover", "confidence": 0.62, "horizon_hours": 48, "grounded": true } ], "changed_by_kernel": true, "model": "qwen3.8-max", "thinking": "low", "attempts": 1, "tokens": 15590, "tokens_reported": true, "error": null }, { "decision_id": "dec-441ddc661064dd3f22bd47e279bdb034", "card_id": "dec-441ddc661064dd3f22bd47e279bdb034", "seq": 1303, "decided_at": "2026-09-27T16:02:40.339801Z", "outcome": "decided", "stance": "flat_with_reasons", "summary": "Stay flat: the circuit breaker is active, US-session names are frozen for the weekend, and BTCUSDT's negative funding z-score is not confirmed by positioning facts while crowd text is promotional.", "mandate_response": "I deploy 0% of the 25% risk budget. The book is flat, has one consecutive loss, book.drawdown_pct = -0.0373319, and only book.reduce_only_distance_pct = 2.46267 before reduce-only, so preserving capital is the priority. The only unfrozen instrument, BTCUSDT, has a negative funding z-score but missing positioning facts and promotional rather than informational crowd text, while every US-session instrument is frozen with session.hours_to_us_reopen = 7.95546.", "flat_reasons": [ "Circuit breaker is active and book.drawdown_pct = -0.0373319 leaves only book.reduce_only_distance_pct = 2.46267 before reduce-only, so new exposure is unattractive.", "All US-session instruments are frozen for the weekend, with session.hours_to_us_reopen = 7.95546, and cannot be opened.", "BTCUSDT is the only tradable name, but its crowd text is dominated by signal-group promotion in story.5, story.7, story.8 and story.9, while derivatives_sentiment.long_short, derivatives_sentiment.open_interest, derivatives_sentiment.taker_ratio and derivatives_sentiment.top_ls failed, leaving positioning unconfirmed.", "BTCUSDT.funding_z_live = -1.78204 is interesting but not extreme relative to reference.funding_z_extreme = 2, and without retail/top/taker positioning it is insufficient to justify paying fees with book.fee_budget_left_today_bps = 6.40281.", "Coordinated stories story.1, story.2, story.3 and story.4 are promotional, not informational, and provide no basis for a trade." ], "triggers": [ { "trigger_id": "heartbeat_funding@2026-09-27T16:00:00Z", "kind": "heartbeat_funding" } ], "targets": [], "changed_by_kernel": false, "model": "qwen3.8-max", "thinking": "full", "attempts": 1, "tokens": 22676, "tokens_reported": true, "error": null } ] }